A New Landscape: Immigration Raids as a Market Force

In 2025, immigration raids have evolved from isolated political events into a broader economic, cultural, and emotional force reshaping how Americans shop, work, and trust institutions. The ThinkNow Immigration Raids Impact Study shows that the effects extend far beyond undocumented individuals: Hispanic, Asian, Gen Z, Millennial, and even affluent U.S. households are experiencing shifts in spending, well-being, and brand expectations.

For brands, understanding this environment is not optional. It is essential for anticipating changes in demand and protecting business health.

Download the full report here.

About the Sample: A Comprehensive Look at the U.S. Consumer

The study is based on a representative sample of 1,500 U.S. adults, balanced across gender, ethnicity, region, and generation. This diversity allows us to capture both direct and indirect effects of immigration raids and to understand how different groups react emotionally and economically.

This breadth provides brands with a reliable foundation for strategic planning, market segmentation, and message development.

Hispanic America: The Economic Engine Under Pressure

The impact is especially pronounced among Hispanic Americans, a segment whose purchasing power has reached $4 trillion in 2025—larger than India’s entire economy. Hispanic households are bigger, more multigenerational, increasingly educated (18.8% hold college degrees), and continue to drive workforce expansion: in 2023 alone they added 820,000 new workers, offsetting a decline of 560,000 among non-Latinos.

Yet this economic engine is being constrained at its core.
Forty-five percent of Hispanic households have reduced spending due to fear of ICE activities, and 44% are avoiding public places including restaurants, retail stores, entertainment venues, and service businesses. For brands, this is a clear signal that immigration-related fear is reshaping demand in categories that rely on foot traffic, discretionary spending, and in-person engagement.

Fear as an Economic Variable: How Consumer Behavior Is Shifting

Fear is becoming a measurable economic force. Nationally, 37% of Americans are delaying major purchases, and among those earning $100K+, the number rises to 45%. This means that immigration raids are not a “niche issue” affecting only certain communities; they are creating a climate of caution that slows consumption across socioeconomic groups.

Brands that misinterpret this slowdown as a marketing issue rather than an emotional and sociopolitical one risk misallocating budgets, inventory, and forecasting assumptions.

National Identity and Optimism: A Decline with Market Consequences

The emotional impact is profound. In just one year, pride in being American among Hispanics dropped from 77% to 54%, and belief in the American Dream fell from 66% to 44%. These declines reflect more than opinion shifts—they signal reduced optimism, which is strongly correlated with consumer spending, risk tolerance, and brand engagement.

For brands, this underscores the need for communication grounded in empathy, stability, and emotional intelligence.

What Consumers Expect from Brands: Leadership, Not Silence

Despite political polarization, public opinion on immigration is more nuanced than headlines suggest. Sixty-four percent of Americans support allowing undocumented immigrants to stay with a path to legal status, while only 29% support deportation.

This matters because consumers increasingly expect brands to reflect their values. Among Hispanics, trust in national brands has fallen sharply to just 18% positive, and 53% believe brands should publicly oppose immigration raids. In 2025, silence is no longer neutral—it is interpreted as a stance.

A Shift in Seasonal Spending: Holiday Anxiety Reflects the Climate

The emotional and financial tension is already influencing key retail moments. This year, only 17% of Americans plan to spend more during the holidays, while 25% plan to spend less. For Hispanics, the share planning to increase holiday spending is half of what it was in 2023, signaling anxiety directly tied to the immigration environment.

Brands must integrate emotional and political context into seasonal planning, not just historical purchasing behavior.

What Brands Must Do: Expanded Strategic Lessons from the Study

The ThinkNow Immigration Raids Impact Report 2025 makes it clear that immigration raids are not just humanitarian or political events—they are market signals. The following strategic lessons highlight what brands should do now to protect equity, maintain relevance, and build trust.

1. Rebuilding trust requires actions—not just messaging
   
   With trust among Hispanics falling to 18%, consumers are no longer persuaded by surface-level statements about diversity or inclusion. They expect brands to demonstrate real empathy through transparent actions, internal policies, and community partnerships. In a moment when public institutions have lost credibility, corporations that act with clarity and responsibility can become anchors of stability for consumers seeking reassurance.
   
   
2. Empathetic communication is now a core market strategy
   
   The study shows that fear—not preference or need—is driving spending reductions across key demographics. When consumers are anxious, the tone and humanity of brand communication matter as much as functional benefits. Brands that acknowledge how people feel and communicate safety, stability, and respect can strengthen connection and influence decision-making at a time when emotional state outweighs rational logic.
   
   
3. Brands must speak clearly—silence is also communication
   
   With 53% of Hispanics expecting brands to oppose immigration raids publicly, the data reveal an explicit desire for corporate leadership. In 2025, not taking a stance is still a stance. Brands don’t need to become political actors, but they do need to articulate their values. Communicating support for diverse communities and advocating for dignity and fairness resonates deeply—and builds long-term loyalty.
   
   
4. Cultural intelligence must be integral—not an add-on
   
   Declines in national pride (77% to 54%) and belief in the American Dream (66% to 44%) show that consumer identity is shifting. Brands that integrate cultural insight—not just demographic data—into strategy will better anticipate behavioral changes. Understanding how migration, politics, identity, and belonging shape daily life allows campaigns to remain relevant and products to meet real needs.
   
   
5. The future of loyalty will be cultural, emotional, and strategic
   
   The study makes one truth clear: culture and emotional state are economic variables. Brands that interpret these signals will develop more resilient strategies, deeper consumer relationships, and sharper market advantages. Loyalty will increasingly hinge on whether consumers feel understood, respected, and supported. A brand that stands with its audience in uncertain times becomes a brand that endures.

In the end, the data reveals a simple truth: immigration raids are reshaping the U.S. consumer landscape in ways brands can’t afford to ignore. Fear, identity, and cultural tension are now powerful market forces, influencing everything from daily purchases to long-term brand trust. Companies that respond with empathy, clarity, and cultural intelligence won’t just navigate this moment—they’ll emerge stronger, more relevant, and better aligned with the consumers who are defining America’s future.

For full insights, demographic deep-dives, data visualizations, and category-specific implications, download the ThinkNow Immigration Raids Impact Report 2025.

As we navigate a year of economic uncertainty and shifting consumer shopping preferences, ThinkNow’s latest Clicks vs. Carts: 2025 Shoppers Report reveals a nuanced picture of how Americans are shopping in 2025, and what that means for retailers, marketers, and brands looking to stay competitive. The quantitative research report is based on a nationally representative sample of 1,500 consumers from ThinkNow’s market research panels and breaks out the findings by age and ethnicity. Some highlights include:

1. Cautious Optimism Amid Economic Uncertainty

While two out of five Americans believe their finances will improve this year, the country remains split on the broader economic outlook. Inflation remains the top concern across all demographics, especially among older consumers. Millennials and Gen Z are more hopeful about their personal financial future, which is an encouraging sign for brands targeting younger buyers.

2. Shopping Priorities Reflect Economic Caution

In 2025, consumers are prioritizing practical purchases such as smartphones, travel, electronics, and home upgrades. Big-ticket items like homes and luxury goods are on the back burner. More than ever, brands must now focus their messaging on value, durability, and emotional connection.

3. E-Commerce Is Here to Stay, But So Is the Store

Online shopping continues to grow, with nearly half of Americans making online purchases at least once a week. Gen Z and Millennials lead the charge here, with Gen Z showing the highest daily online shopping rates. Still, in-store shopping remains vital—especially for groceries, alcohol, and home goods—proving that omnichannel strategies are essential.

4. Hybrid Shopping Is the New Norm

Clothing and fashion purchases increasingly straddle online and in-store channels, as consumers seek convenience and tactile experience. Millennials are expanding their online habits into groceries and appliances, while Gen Z is driving new growth in beauty and electronics online.

5. Price and Quality Drive Purchases

Across categories, price and quality are the two biggest decision drivers. Brand reputation, customer reviews, and the ability to touch or try products also play a role, especially for big purchases. Speed of delivery and easier returns are crucial levers for increasing online conversion.

6. Amazon Still Reigns, But Niche Retailers Are Gaining Ground

Amazon is the top online retailer, but Walmart and Target are strong contenders, especially among African American and Hispanic consumers. Younger shoppers are also exploring platforms like Shein, Nike, and Instacart, reflecting a broadening of the digital marketplace.

7. Cultural Relevance Matters—Especially in Multicultural Segments

More than half of Hispanic consumers say they sometimes or always look for Spanish-language shopping options. Millennials and Gen X Hispanics also place greater importance on culturally relevant marketing, from language to holiday promotions. For brands, marketing to the nation’s growing Hispanic population isn't a trend—it's a necessity.

Future of Retail: What’s Next?

Consumers see faster delivery, mobile-first shopping, and sustainable options as key trends shaping the future. Gen Z and Millennials are driving interest in social media shopping, while Gen X shows the greatest enthusiasm for immersive retail experiences like AR and VR.

How Retailers Can Win in 2025

To boost online sales, consumers are calling for better discounts, faster shipping, and simpler return processes. This points to a continued expectation for convenience, transparency, and value delivered with cultural fluency and digital agility.

Consumer Shopping in 2025: The Bottom Line

As consumer shopping expectations evolve, brands must adapt strategies that blend price sensitivity, omnichannel experiences, and cultural resonance. Whether online, in-store, or in-between, the shopping journey of 2025 is dynamic and deeply human.

Download the report here.