Americans are gearing up to make their voices heard as the 2024 Presidential Election approaches. With only six months before ballots are cast, emotions are running high as the nation prepares for one of the most consequential elections in history. ThinkNow tapped into the pulse of likely voters with a nationwide online quantitative survey, uncovering the attitudes and trends shaping this pivotal moment in American democracy.

Download the report here.

A Diverse and Engaged Electorate

The survey, which reached 2,000 Americans and 1,443 likely voters, highlighted a significant level of engagement among various demographic groups. While approximately 80% of Non-Hispanic Whites, Asians, and African Americans expressed their intention to vote, around 70% of Hispanics indicated the same. Despite historical patterns suggesting a potential gap between reported intentions and actual turnout, the demographic differences align closely with past trends.

Not everyone, however, is interested in voting. Among the top explanations cited was the lack of appealing candidates, with Gen Zers exhibiting the lowest interest in politics overall. Furthermore, Baby Boomers and Non-Hispanic Whites were most likely to express dissatisfaction with the current slate of candidates.

Seven States Poised to Determine Election Outcome

One of the survey's most notable findings was the even split among likely voters between Republican and Democratic candidates. In pivotal swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan, Republican candidates held a clear edge, potentially tipping the scales in favor of the GOP. If actual voting results were to match current survey results, the Republican party would obtain the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. 

Interestingly, if Michigan, with its 15 electoral votes, were to vote for the Democrats, they would retain the White House.

TV News Still Rules

When it comes to sourcing information about candidates, traditional media outlets such as TV news and news websites remain the primary channels for likely voters. However, social media and conversations with family and friends also play a significant role, particularly among younger demographics and certain ethnic groups.

Interestingly, the choice of information sources varied across swing states, reflecting each region's diverse media landscapes and campaigning strategies.

The Economy Takes Center Stage

Amidst a myriad of issues, the economy emerged as the foremost concern for likely voters nationwide. Healthcare, social security, and immigration also ranked prominently among voters' priorities, highlighting the multifaceted nature of electoral decision-making. Notably, Republican and Democratic voters exhibited divergent priorities, with the economy, immigration, and a strong military resonating strongly among the former, while healthcare and gun laws were top issues for the latter.

Furthermore, generational disparities on issues were evident, with Millennials prioritizing anti-poverty initiatives and LGBTQ+ rights. Gen Xers and Boomers, on the other hand, focused more on traditional concerns like abortion and national security. Gen Z cares more about student loan repayment than other groups by a wide margin. In swing states, variations in issue salience were observed, reflecting each region's unique socio-political landscapes and demographic compositions and the need to target messaging at the local level.

Challenges to Electoral Confidence

Despite the impending electoral showdown, concerns lingered regarding the fairness and integrity of the electoral process. Alarmingly, less than half of likely voters expressed confidence in the upcoming elections' fairness, with Republican voters exhibiting the highest levels of skepticism. Surprisingly, a substantial proportion of Hispanics voiced doubts about the election's fairness, underscoring the need for enhanced efforts to bolster confidence and transparency in the electoral system.

In Conclusion

As the 2024 Presidential Election approaches, the insights gleaned from ThinkNow's survey offer a snapshot of the diverse perspectives and priorities shaping the American electorate as they currently exist. Public opinion will certainly shift in the coming months, but these findings can provide valuable guidance for candidates, policymakers, and stakeholders navigating the intricacies of current American electorate. Ultimately, democracy is founded on the principles of participation and representation. With an evenly divided electorate, the outcome of the coming election will be determined by the enthusiasm each party can generate.

Download the report here.

Effective market research goes beyond understanding trends to identifying opportunities in the market. But many companies struggle to translate data insights into tangible financial gains. This struggle stems from a tendency to diminish the significance of market research instead of acknowledging its profound potential as a revenue generator. Failing to see the strategic value of research hurts the bottom line and creates distance between the consumer and the brand. Companies need a deep understanding of consumers, and market research is the most effective way to achieve that.

How market research does that is changing, however. Artificial Intelligence is transforming the market research industry. New AI-powered methodologies, like synthetic panels, are creating opportunities for marketers to achieve similar results in less time with fewer budget constraints.

But AI isn't a silver bullet. Though rapidly evolving, the technology is new, and the accuracy of these models is still questionable. These new tools should be seen as complements, not replacements, for proven research methodologies.

One thing is certain – the future of market research lies in effectively integrating data, insights, and human curiosity. By leveraging these elements, researchers can become strategic partners, driving real-world business results and ensuring market research is a true value-add, not just a cost.

In this episode of The New Mainstream podcast, Michael Nevski, Director of Global Insights at Visa, delves into the vital link between market research and revenue growth and explores the potential of AI to reshape the industry.

With the 2024 presidential election looming, political campaigns and voters are gearing up for what could be the most highly anticipated showdown in recent memory. While there are few certainties at this point, one factor has become abundantly clear. In this highly competitive climate, voter data collection is undergoing a dramatic transformation as political campaigns employ increasingly sophisticated methods to understand the electorate.

Traditional methods, heavily reliant on phone calls and in-person surveys, are giving way to a new era of online sample collection that makes political market research faster, more cost-effective, and ultimately, more insightful.

The Limitations of Traditional Methods

For decades, political campaigns relied on phone surveys and doorstep polling to understand voter sentiment. While these methods can provide valuable data, they come with inherent limitations. Phone surveys struggle with low response rates. Increasing spam calls and robocalls makes people wary of unknown numbers, and some demographics, like younger voters, just aren’t interested.

In-person surveys, while offering a higher response rate and access to hard-to-reach audiences, are expensive and time-consuming. Achieving a statistically significant sample size across a large geographical area can be a logistical nightmare for campaigns with limited resources.

The Benefits of Online Samples

The 2020 pandemic accelerated consumers’ shift to digital, from e-commerce to streaming. The same can be said for political campaigns. By turning to online sample collection, political campaigns can partner with online survey platforms with access to vast pools of pre-recruited participants, streamlining data collection and potentially reaching demographics less accessible through traditional methods.

These platforms leverage a variety of methods to build their samples, including:

• Online Recruitment: Individuals can sign up to become panelists and receive invitations to participate in surveys on various topics, including politics, often in exchange for incentives like points or rewards.
• Social Media: Platforms can leverage targeted advertising on social media to recruit participants who meet specific demographic criteria.
• Website Intercepts: Visitors to a campaign website can be invited to participate in a short survey before leaving the site.

The abundance of and accessibility to consumer data have made online sample popular among political campaigns, and its advantages have proven beneficial for candidates. During the 2018 U.S. midterm election, the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaign (AOC) leveraged online surveys to identify key issues for voters in her district and tailor her messaging accordingly. The campaign's data-driven approach is credited with helping AOC achieve a surprise victory over a well-funded incumbent.

More specifically, the advantages of online sample include:

• Larger, more diverse samples: Online platforms offer access to millions of potential participants, allowing campaigns to gather data from a broader range of demographics and geographic locations. This ensures a more accurate representation of the electorate, leading to more informed campaign decisions.
• Faster turnaround times: Online surveys can be deployed quickly and efficiently, with results available in a matter of days. Campaigns can adapt their messaging and strategies in real-time based on voter feedback.
• Cost-effectiveness: Online sample collection is significantly more affordable than traditional methods. Campaigns can gather a wealth of data at a fraction of the cost of phone surveys or in-person polling.
• Data quality: Many online platforms employ rigorous screening processes to ensure the quality of their data, including verifying participant identities and filtering out bots or fraudulent entries.
• Detailed targeting: Online surveys allow for highly targeted questioning based on demographics, political affiliation, or past voting behavior to customize messaging to specific voter segments.
• Advanced data analysis: Online survey platforms often provide built-in data analysis tools, allowing campaigns to identify trends and patterns within the data.

Addressing Concerns About Online Samples

While online samples offer numerous advantages, there are some potential drawbacks. One concern is the possibility of non-response bias. People who choose to participate in online surveys may not be representative of the entire population. 

However, reputable online survey platforms employ weighting techniques to adjust for this bias and ensure the sample reflects the demographics of the target population.

Another concern is the potential for online fraud. Bad actors may attempt to skew survey results by submitting fake responses. To mitigate this risk, online survey platforms can utilize various security measures, such as CAPTCHAs and IP address verification.

Campaigns must ensure they are partnering with reputable survey platforms with robust data security measures. Additionally, participants must be fully informed about how their data will be used and must have the option to opt out of surveys.

The Future of Political Market Research

The use of online samples by political campaigns is not a trend but a fundamental shift in how information is gathered. As online platforms evolve and refine their methodologies, the data will become even more robust and actionable, empowering campaigns to develop targeted messaging that builds stronger connections with voters, potentially leading to more votes.  

The use of streaming services in Mexico has history, but it was the pandemic that triggered a significant surge in their adoption. Online entertainment served as a virtual window for Mexican consumers, who were confined to their homes at that time. Even as the pandemic waned, Mexican consumers have continued to embrace streaming, providing a steady audience for streaming providers.

According to the National Audiovisual Content Consumption Survey of the Federal Institute of Telecommunications (IFT), paid subscription services for online entertainment were not widespread before the pandemic (2019). Only 38% of those surveyed reported having such a service. However, by 2023, this figure had risen significantly to 50%, indicating a clear shift in consumer behavior.

ThinkNow recently conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey in Mexico with the aim of understanding the streaming services landscape in the region across ethnicity, gender, age, and socioeconomic levels. The survey provided valuable insights into category dynamics, including the rankings for popular services available to Mexican consumers and their subscription preferences.

Click here to download the report.

But first, let’s look at how Mexican consumers access online entertainment.

Streaming Services Consumption Habits

Mexican consumers are avid users of streaming services, averaging 3 hours daily watching movies, videos, or listening to music online. Smartphones and Smart TVs are the preferred devices for accessing streaming content. Studies suggest that streaming services have become indispensable to Mexican household budgets. Unlike in past trends, consumers now prioritize paying for these services with cash through debit cards or in person at convenience stores like OXXO. This shift highlights how streaming services have transformed from a luxury to a necessary monthly expense.

Major Players in Video and Audio Streaming

On average, Mexican consumers use three video and two audio streaming services. Over 70% of video streaming users subscribe to Netflix, followed closely by Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video. In the audio realm, Spotify remains the top choice. However, YouTube Music and Amazon Prime Music are popular music and podcast options. Interestingly, higher-income groups subscribe to more video streaming services than their lower-income counterparts. However, this trend doesn't apply to audio streaming services, suggesting wider accessibility across income levels.

Does Loyalty Exist?

Growing demand for features like broader content libraries and lower subscription fees should be top of mind for streaming services providers. A staggering half of respondents admitted canceling a service due to rising subscription costs. Cost increases, which have disproportionately impacted Millennials, coupled with perceived limited content selection (for audio and video), have motivated users to seek more convenient options that better balance price and content. The 2021 digital tax implementation forced some platforms, like Netflix, to raise prices, ultimately burdening users. With additional price hikes possible, consumer loyalty may be hard to find.

How much do Mexican consumers pay? An average of 457 Mexican pesos (US$27) for video and 274 (US$16) for audio streaming services. Loyalty to any of these platforms hinges primarily on the quality and variety of content offered. Younger generations (Gen Z and Millennials) are more willing to pay a premium for broader content selection. Boomers, not so much. Aside from the content offered, Mexican consumers consider what each streaming service offers before deciding which service to subscribe to.  While cost is important, consumers also consider promotions and free trial lengths when choosing a streaming service.

Are Consumers Satisfied with Streaming Services?

Eight out of ten respondents reported being “very” or “somewhat” satisfied with their current video and audio streaming services, with Gen Z reporting the lowest satisfaction levels. Like brand loyalty, satisfaction hinges on consumers' ability to get a wider content selection at a more affordable price. To compensate, many users have turned to account sharing in the past to manage costs. However, as streaming services like Netflix and Spotify crack down on that, now charging for account sharing, the practice no longer gives users the relief they were looking for.  

Mexican consumers demand more value – a wider variety of content at a lower cost. This presents a challenge for streaming services. Subscribers naturally want to keep their entertainment options, while platforms need to maintain profitable content libraries. Strategic partnerships between services may offer a solution, providing content diversity without breaking the bank.

Click here to download the report.

While popular demand-side platforms (DSPs) like Google DV360, Xandr, and The Trade Desk offer powerful tools for reaching vast target audiences programmatically, digital media buyers for Fortune 500 companies face a more profound challenge: effectively spending the massive budgets allocated to them, especially when it comes to reaching diverse audiences. 

While diversity, equity, and inclusion seem to have fallen out of favor in some areas, DEI continues to thrive in others. Consumers are still very interested in engaging with brands that align with their values and show that support, or lack thereof, with their wallets. Future-focused brands see engaging with diverse audiences as a moral duty and sound business strategy for growth. However, achieving this in the digital realm can be difficult, particularly when traditional demographic targeting methods fall short. 

That's where an inclusive perspective on programmatic advertising becomes essential. It's not just about casting a wider net but leveraging insights into cultural nuances, behavioral patterns, and consumer preferences to reach diverse audiences with content they want to see. Doing so eliminates the need to create fictitious audiences or use identifiers subject to restrictions, which are common tactics on DSPs today. 

One key aspect to consider is the concept of zero-party data. Unlike third-party data, which can be unreliable and plagued with privacy concerns, consumers willingly provide zero-party data. It's the information they consciously share with brands because they see value in doing so. Since consumers are self-reporting across a range of classifications and categories, the insights can enrich programmatic strategies, improving campaign performance and ROI. 

Most DSPs, however, lack native capabilities to offer zero-party data to programmatic advertisers. By partnering with third-party providers specializing in zero-party data solutions, digital media buyers can segment their audience based not just on traditional demographics but on cultural affinities, language preferences, and even heritage. This unprecedented granularity unlocks a wealth of insights that enable media buyers to reach diverse audiences more effectively. 

Effective targeting is just one piece of the puzzle. Equally important is crafting messaging that resonates authentically with diverse audiences. This requires a deep understanding of cultural nuances and sensitivities and a commitment to representation and inclusivity in your creative approach. Achieving this demands C-level buy-in and a commitment to inclusion as a core pillar of the company's digital advertising strategy, positioning the brand to enhance its effectiveness in an increasingly multicultural marketplace. 

In closing, big-picture thinking, ingenuity, and an inclusive perspective on programmatic advertising are value-adds to digital media buyers responsible for managing ad budgets for some of the world’s largest brands. Central to this approach is embracing the potential of zero-party data and forging partnerships with innovative third-party providers. Doing so opens doors to new avenues for engaging diverse audiences in a genuine and impactful manner.  

This blog post was originally published on MediaPost.

Diversity isn't just about optics. Today’s consumers prioritize authenticity and base their purchase decisions on how brands show up. But authenticity does not start when the products hit the shelf. It must be woven into every stage of the go-to-market strategy, including market research – from panel recruitment and survey design to selecting moderators who foster open and honest conversations. Understanding diverse consumer perspectives requires more than just surface-level representation.

One crucial aspect of fostering authenticity in market research is the composition of research teams. Selecting moderators, for example, that reflect the demographics of the survey participants helps ensure authenticity in their responses. The psychological safety that the environment presents reduces the need for codeswitching, liberating respondents to be their authentic selves.

Beyond focus groups, greater diversity is needed across the market research industry. Often, diverse teammates doing the work—running the data tables and visualizing the data—aren’t the ones presenting the work, and that needs to change. There’s value in bringing those in the back of the house to the front to create equal opportunity for advancement. 

By prioritizing inclusivity and authenticity internally, companies can forge deeper connections with consumers externally and drive meaningful change in the marketplace.

In this episode of The New Mainstream podcast, Kai Fuentes, President and CEO of Ebony Marketing Systems, discusses how the market research industry can benefit from intentionally cultivating and championing diversity and inclusion.

Understanding consumer trends and preferences through market research has always been important to marketers. But it's become a business imperative in today’s hyperconnected, competitive marketplace. While countries like Colombia, Dominican Republic, Peru, Chile, Ecuador, and Mexico have led the way in market research investment in Latin America, we must acknowledge the strides made in Central America, notably in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama.

What’s driving the growth?

Well, several factors are at play. The widespread expansion of the internet has opened up a wealth of data on consumer behavior and market dynamics, now easily accessible with just a few clicks!

Furthermore, the growth of the middle class in the region has generated more sophisticated consumer demands. With a population whose tastes and preferences are constantly evolving, companies must stay up to date. Market research insights are the compass guiding their journey.

Finally, the reduction in extreme poverty in recent decades has been a significant factor. This change has increased consumption and attracted greater domestic and foreign investment, creating a virtuous cycle where economic expansion fuels the imperative for deeper insights.  

How do you navigate the challenges?

Like any journey, navigating market research across LATAM has its share of bends and twists in the road. Access to representative samples of the online population remains an obstacle. Disparities in internet connectivity can skew research results, posing a hurdle to obtaining accurate insights.

As such, data quality is fundamental. With the vast amount of information available online, it is crucial to ensure that the data is reliable and accurate. After all, no one wants to make important decisions based on faulty information.

Additionally, there's an ongoing tug-of-war between traditional methods and online research. Convincing companies to embrace new technologies can be daunting, yet exploring all avenues is essential to paint a comprehensive picture of the market landscape.

What are the market research fundamentals?

First, find an experienced business partner with a track record of providing reliable and representative samples in Central America, like ThinkNow. In addition, instead of seeing online research and traditional methods as adversaries, inquire how both approaches can be integrated to attain a more comprehensive and precise understanding of the market.

Lastly, adopt a balanced approach. While the growth of market research in Central America presents exciting opportunities, sustaining this momentum and fostering its contribution to regional economic development requires addressing industry-wide challenges across LATAM. Collaboration between the public and private sectors is imperative to harness the potential of online research across the region.

References:

World Bank. "Central America: Investment and Economic Growth".

Latin American Institute of Market Research and Public Opinion (ILAM). "Report on the Growth of Market Research in Central America".

López, A. (2022). "The impact of the expansion of the Internet on market research in Latin America". Journal of Economic Studies, 15(2), 45-60.